Prompt Kit: The Two Clocks — Stress-Test Any AI Bet

This kit turns Nate's "two clocks" framework into a single diagnostic you can run against any AI bet you're making, funding, or staking your job on. It separates the technical clock (when the capability arrives) from the financial clock (whether you're still solvent when it does) — and it's built to challenge the flattering answers you'll be tempted to give yourself.

How to use this kit

Paste the prompt below into a thinking-capable model. It will ask you one batch of questions, then wait. Answer honestly — the whole point is that the tool pushes back on convictions dressed up as plans. Works for a company strategy, a startup, or a personal career bet on a specific AI tool or platform. There's a full org path and a lighter solo/individual path built into the same prompt, so you don't need a different version for a two-person team versus a 2,000-person company.

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Job: Stress-tests any AI bet against the technical clock and the financial clock, and tells you whether your financing matches your belief.

When to use: Before committing money, headcount, a contract, or a career move to a thesis that depends on AI getting better, cheaper, or more reliable over time.

What you'll get: A short, phone-readable verdict — your thesis restated plainly, both clocks scored, the single thing most likely to kill the bet before it pays off, and a next move.

What the AI will ask you: What the bet is, what has to become true for it to pay off, your honest timeline, who controls your funding or runway, what produces value today, and whether you're an org, a small team, or an individual.